Bailey vs. Pritzker
I have written before on the challenge that conservatives in Illinois are facing in terms of the race for governor and US Senate. I am not a politician or consultant, but I do love working with numbers and even more I love the state of Illinois. I want to see it turn away from foolish ideas and be governed by those who respect God’s truth.
In 2014, Bruce “The Deceiver” Rauner beat Pat Quinn in the race for governor. Depending on the source, Rauner beat Quinn by about 140,000 votes. Quinn won only one county – you guessed it, Cook County. Rauner deceived many conservatives and others with his promises. Although Rauner had some money, his 2018 campaign for governor was pathetic to say the least. He received nearly 58,000 fewer votes in the 2018 election and was trounced by Pritzker.
I have about zero respect for Pritzker based on his policies and his promotion of all sorts of evil, but I must say, he did energize the democratic base. He beat Rauner by over 700,000 votes in the 2018 race. While Quinn only one county, Pritzker won at least 16 counties (total of 102 in Illinois).
Here was the key for Pritzker. He won Cook County by 836,138 votes. Pritzker received 51% of his total votes from just Cook County. If you throw in the following 6 counties: DuPage, Will, Lake, Kane, Champaign, and St. Clair counties, Pritzker received more votes than Rauner did. In fact, Pritzker could have given the 611,791 votes he received in the rest of Illinois and donated them to Rauner and still won. It was a slaughter!
Now looking to the 2020 Presidential election, Trump in those 7 counties received 260,608 more votes than Rauner did. Now in a Presidential election, the voter turnout is much higher. Pritzker in a non-Presential election year still received more votes than Trump did, 32,855 more votes to be exact.
Two things are going to have to happen if Bailey is to be beat Pritzker. He must get as many votes as Trump did and hope that the turnout for democrats decreases by 5% or more. This will be an incredible challenge for Bailey.
In the Republican Primary, Bailey did win an impressive 100 counties out of 102. However, in Cook County, Bailey received 62,037 votes compared to 430,407 for Pritzker. In the 7 biggest counties that Pritzker easily won in 2018, he received 621,323 votes in the 2022 primary compared to just 165,614 votes for Bailey in those same 7 counties. Bailey did face more challengers than did Pritzker in this most recent race. Overall Pritzker and Miles received only 20,553 more votes than did Bailey and all his challengers in the primary. That is a much smaller gap than in 2018 when you compare the primary votes.
Bailey must spend the bulk of his time leading up to the election in the Chicagoland area. He must make significant inroads into African-American and Hispanic voters and must try to get some support from suburban women on crime and economic issues.